Yayyy…..another post about COVID-19. No worries, you’re not obligated to read any further.
There are about 328 million Americans, with a 60% minimum infection rate needed for herd immunity at….lets say 1/2% (.005) fatality rate equals about 1 million Americans dead from COVID-19. That is a possibility if we sit back and don’t follow the lead of other countries that are having success at getting the virus spread under control. Those are conservative numbers from some experts (but experts can’t predict the future)……the dead will mostly be our grandparents and parents.
We can quibble about the numbers….maybe the fatality rate is 0.27% instead of 0.50%…. maybe herd immunity is at 80% of the population getting infected instead of 60%. Perhaps the virus mutates to a more lethal variant as it probably did before the 2nd wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu. Maybe a vaccine is possible….maybe not.
An estimated 675,000 people died in America (estimated 50 million worldwide) from the 1918 Spanish flu (H1N1). It actually lasted about 2 years (1918-1920)….with today’s US population it would be equivalent to 2 million dead. There were 3 waves of the virus, but it was the 2nd wave that was the most lethal. The federal government response was ineffectual. It was up to the states and local officials to fend for themselves. History is repeating in some respects.
We don’t often have to think about exponential growth, or try to calculate the doubling rate of infections, or populations, or anything. Exponential growth is a weird concept and it can be mind-boggling to realize just how quickly something can go from manageable to overwhelming. I saw this video several years ago on youtube that blew me away….it’s worth a close viewing….or 10. Watch this video link below from Dr. Albert Bartlett on Arithmetic, Population and Energy.
I can’t stop my neighbor from his unhealthy diet, which causes his early death from a heart attack. I can’t stop the cashier at my grocery store from getting cancer and dying before she gets to see her first grandchild. However, I can put a simple cloth mask on and try to socially distance so that I’m hopefully not the one spreading a new virus around causing other people to get sick or worse.
Below is a link to an article explaining the effectiveness of masks to reduce the spread of COVID-19.